Monday, December 20, 2010

Ball park estimates of motor operating expenses:

2004 Honda Civic VP motor operating Costs for first 76,500 miles from 2004 - 2010:

Fuel was $6000.00 at 35 MPG = $2.76 average (conservative average estimates)

Oil Changes every 5000 miles at $30 per change = $450.00

Total cost per mile = $.08

Electricity for an average 51 miles/work day for 6 years = 76500 miles (conservative average estimates)

Total cost per mile = $.02

Plus current cost of 33 90AH (110 volts) Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries at $3861.00/100,000 miles (current price)

Total cost per mile = $.04

ICE Engine operating cost with no other repairs or gasoline price increases for 200,000 miles (extended life of car) = $16,000

Add timing belt replacement and tune up at 110,000 miles at $500 for a total of $16,500

Motor operating cost of first 100,000 ICE miles = $8,000

Motor operating cost of second 100,000 PIE miles at current battery prices assuming conversion at 100,000 miles = $7,000

Total Motor operating cost with an ICE to PIE conversion at 100,000 miles: $15,000

Total ballpark motor operating cost savings: $1500. 

Total CO2 savings for the planet if everyone did this: priceless.

Cost of original car: $14,410.

Cost of replacement car before engine/exhaust repairs are needed $16,650
(2011 Honda Fit lowest MSRP)

Cost of ICE to PIE conversion?????

OK, here is the scenario.  I, like most of the households in the USA, have two vehicles.  My wife and I (normally) both commute to work and take an annual vacation.  I own a used 2000 Dodge Caravan with less than 70,000 miles and the 2004 Honda Civic with over 76,000 miles.  We use the Honda more for daily trips to the mall and food stores, etc.  And most of the time, we use the Dodge for any longer trips.  Over the years, the average use of the Honda works out to 51 miles per work day, 5 days a week, 250 days a year, for 6 years.  However, we have used the Honda for longer trips to Philadelphia, etc.  If we used the Dodge for all the longer trips, and only used the Honda for all the shorter trips, we could pay less over the long run if the Honda was converted into an electric car or if we bought an electric car new.

The lowest costing fully electric car on the market today is the Nissan Leaf at a cost of about $25,000 after the government rebate of $7,500.  If we bought an ICE car new, the cheapest one on the market is $16,650 and would cost more to operate than an electric car.

So, in this recession, where we don’t have the money for a new car, what other choice do we have?  Well here are the realistic choices for more than about 20% of the two car households in the USA as of today:

  1. Keep the cars you have and run them into the ground.
  2. Bite the bullet and buy a new car whenever you figure it is no longer feasible to keep up repairing the worst old car.
  3. If you like one of the cars you have, and it is a durable model car that will last another 100,000 miles without considering ICE motor and exhaust system repairs, convert the car into a PIE and use your other car for longer range trips.

Option number 3 is the cheapest alternative, is it not?

So, if an ICE to PIE conversion is still cheaper than buying a $16,650 replacement car, if we budget for a $15,000 ICE to PIE conversion, we are ahead of the game.  But do we want to put up with all the uncertainties that such a conversion would entail?

First, how many places in the USA do any electric car conversions?  How many people know the best way to convert your car?  Suppose we try to do it ourselves?  Can we be sure that we won’t make a costly mistake?

There are too many ifs for a measly 10% off the cost of a reliable Honda Fit.  And what about a charging station?  I live in a townhouse with no garage!  How much will that cost?  No.  If we want to save money for certain, we have to target a better conversion price. And do the conversion when the cost of gas goes up or the price of batteries comes down or we do the math for our own set of circumstances and decide in favor of an ICE to PIE conversion.  For my money, I am going to pick an arbitrary $10,000 conversion and see what I can get for that.

So, you think I am a little bit nuts now don’t you?  OK, consider that the end result will be class 5 PIE (see prior blog posts for the definition of a class 5 PIE) that currently costs over $25,000 for a brand new model.  So, if I figure a way to do that, however unlikely it may seem now, I really make out.  But that is not the only alternative.  Suppose $10,000 pays for a class 4 PIE, or even a class 3 PIE?  Do I still make out?  Maybe so considering that a class 3 PIE can go about 60 MPH top speed, and travel 60 miles on one charge for running around town.  So, the next step is to see what the Pittsburgh model that I mentioned in the last post has already done and what it cost for its conversion.

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